Friday, November 5, 2010

2010 Midterm Election Brings GOP Historic Victory, But Why?


This past Tuesday's election stirred things up a bit on Capitol Hill. The election showed a stark contrast to the way the American public voted just two years ago in 2008, and spoke volumes about the way the public feels about the current job being done by all levels of U.S. government.

As if President Obama didn't have enough trouble pushing through his agenda over his first two years in office, his troubles are now compounded by the fact that Democrats no longer maintain majority in both chambers of congress.

Republicans needed 39 seats in the house to reclaim the majority they lost in 2006, and were able to claim an astounding 60 (a couple of races are still too close to call 72 hours later, so these numbers may change slightly). Their victory will go down in history, marking the biggest house gain by any major party since 1948.

Republicans also won 6 seats in the Senate, but Democrats will maintain control of that chamber. Republicans also did well in governor's races across the nation, and will be moving into at least 10 governor's mansions across the country that previously belonged to Democrats. In addition, at least 16 state legislative chambers that were Democratic went to Republicans.

So why did the Democrats perform so poorly this past election? After the Democratic Party cleaned up in the 2008 elections, many political strategists theorized that Democrats would reign in a significant length of stay. James Carville, political consultant and pundit most well known for being Bill Clinton's campaign manager during the 1992 presidential elections, even wrote a book based on precisely that theory entitled "40 More Years: How the Democrats Will Rule the Next Generation."

While there are dozens of possible arguments as to why Democrats performed so poorly and Republicans so well, I would like to briefly discuss two arguments that, in my own estimation, were the biggest influences. The first I would characterize simply as 'liberals losing hope in the Democratic Party,' and the second as 'conservatives gaining hope in the Republican party.'

So why have liberals lost hope in the Democratic Party? I would argue that during President Obama's campaign in 2008 he instilled an unrealistic measure of hope in the American people, a measure that could never be attained. President Obama's motivational rhetoric made people believe that they would see a much needed change after eight horrific years of President Bush.

Two years later I think that Obama supporters feel that they have once again been let down by their government, leading to low turnout at the polls in 2010. Lower turnout is always expected during a non-presidential election year, but turnout was so low this year that it was almost half of the turnout we saw in 2008. This shows the importance of campaign strategists to legitimize political platform claims during campaigns so that once in office elected officials can fulfill their promises. In the 2008 election, I would argue that President Obama's campaign managers let people's imaginations run rampant, and may have caused serious problems for him and the Democratic Party in the years to come.

Republicans, or more specifically the Tea Party movement, may face a similar problem over the next couple of years. They have promised a great deal of change to their constituents, and if they are unable to deliver they may face the same type of backlash come 2012. The Tea Party movement did a tremendous job of energizing the conservative right to get out to the polls, and really influenced voter turnout. Their endorsement of several candidates helped them win critical seats, most notably Rand Paul's Senate seat in Kentucky.

Both parties are faced with extremely hard challenges on the road ahead. Now that Republicans control the house will they remain the party of "just say no," or will they take action and push through pieces of legislation? Will Democrats and Republicans be able to come to agreements, or will we be faced with another two years of gridlock and politics as usual? These are some very scary times for this country, and the world as a whole. Only time will tell if America can rehabilitate itself.

2 comments:

Jillian said...

For serious change see Ralph Nader, until then we can dream.

Anonymous said...

Democrats are also just lazy. I don't mean to stereotype democrats as being lazy, but the youth is known to have a low turn out at the polls. The youth are the ones who helped propel Obama and Democrats to victory in 2008. As you said, they got fed up because they haven't seen any promised change. The motivation and inspiration from the election 2 years ago has vanished, and it sucks for liberals in America.